Wednesday, October 15, 2003US Software Industry Going The Way of the DodoAndy Grove's talk about the software industry is pretty much bang-on with what I'm worried about. Here are the highlights: Intel Chairman and tech visionary Andy Grove has sent a warning shot across the bow of the US federal government. The US software industry is about to lose jobs and market share to foreign competitors unless the government acts quickly to fight protectionist trade policies and double US productivity, he said. "I'm here to be the skunk at your garden party," Grove began in his afternoon speech beamed via satellite to an otherwise rosy gathering of software executives in Washington on October 9. He predicted that the software and services industry is about to travel the well-worn path of the steel and semiconductor industries. Given that almost everyone sees the same problem with the software and services industry, what incentive is there to stay in the industry? Most of the younger working generation will no longer be able to compete in 5-10 years. Most large companies already have huge outsourcing operations in India and China set up as "research facilities" or through "contract agencies". To be honest, we can't compete. Waving a fifth of our fat American paychecks at an Indian or Chinese engineer is enough incentive for them to work just as hard if not harder than we do on a regular basis. With their lower costs of living and higher rates of unemployment, it makes them "hungrier" and willing to work a lot harder for a lot less. This is exactly why Taiwan and China became the biggest semiconductor, textiles, design services, clothing, et. al facilities in the world. In a global economy where there are low barriers to entry, wage will shift to parity amongst all labor markets. What does this mean to me? It means I really need to consider getting the heck out of this field or into a segment of the field that can't be outsourced. If I am to stay in software, I'll need to work on defense, government, security type positions where it wouldn't make sense to have outsourcing to another country. Otherwise, I should really just study up and enter a new field like law. You know I'm very worried about entering law. There are two main reasons: 1. It costs a helluva lot of money that I don't have. 2. I might not be good at it. I wish I could resolve part 2 more easily. I wish there was a way that I could determine if I was good at it. Looking back at my CS education, I knew I'd be fairly decent at it after my first programming weeder class. Maybe I could apply that reasoning towards law. I could get a better picture of whether I fit into law by taking an introductor/weeder core law class at night. I'm not sure I have time to do that or really want to, but if I want to legitimately consider law school, I need to make time. Ultimately, I and industry titans like Andy Grove know that the software industry is going to turn into the steel industry of the late 70's. What's the next big money maker in a market where IP is now going to be farmed out? My opinion is that it will be IP law, which is still a nascent industry that's experiencing backlog and inefficiencies due to the recent explosion in technology. Even as American companies decide to farm labor out to cheaper labor markets, they'll still want to preserve their intellectual property via patents and litigation. In fact, as the labor pool becomes more readily available (e.g. more China/Indian workers get educated and enter the tech field) I would imagine more innovation would result and lead to more work for more patent attorneys. We're at the cusp of a new era here. Technologies that began as various fields, wireless, optics, super and semi conductive materials, manufacturing process, electrical engineering are beginning to converge. In the next 5 years we'll have a major innovation that will revolutionize computing again. It will be like the advent of the cell phone or the computer itself. Imagine systems with optical interconnects and cabling, combined with material science advances to increase the number of gates on a die and dramatically reduce their size, and increases in persistent flash storage as well as storage per disk increases. Add to this anywhere connectivity and what do you get? The ultimate portable devices, as powerful as modern day supercomputers in the palm of your hand. Possibly used for *everything*, as cell phones, credit cards, keys to your house/cars, internet connectivity, multimedia, identification. Maybe even give you set preferences that identify you in a particular room. E.g. you enter a room, like in Star Trek and the room is told exactly what you like. Ok whoa its 5:30AM and I'm just not making sense anymore I'm going to go to sleep and delete this post tomorrow. posted @ 05:26 AM PST [link] It Livvveeesss!!! I got my laptop LCD part in the mail yesterday and installed it. It works again hurray!!! posted @ 04:04 AM PST [link] |
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